Who will win in
Tamil Nadu Election?
By V. Shanmuganathan

M. Karunanidhi, chief of DMK has a larger alliance with partners including Congress, PMK, Communists and Muslim League. It has the advantage of maximum percentage of votes. The vote share in the last few assembly elections are generally: AIADMK (32%), DMK (31%), Congress (9.5%), PMK (5%), Communists (3%), MDMK (4.5%) BJP (3.5%).

DMK is forcefully campaigning with M. Karunanidhi as star speaker. DMK promises free colour television sets, free gas stove, rice for Rs.2 per kg.

In assembly elections people in general don’t elect the ruling party because of anti- incumbency factor. That way this is the turn for DMK to rule. M. Karunanidhi has been in politics for almost 70 years. People can be made to feel let him have the crown at the final phase of his life.

There is also an equal and opposite view. Ms. J. Jayalalitha, Chief Minister and AIADMK Supremo, came to power with a massive mandate in 2001. She campaigns her “Success Story” with an attack on DMK. M. Karunanidhi emptied the govt. exchequer. She had to start from the scratch. during the first 3 years of her rule, the State faced severe famine and financial crisis. There was no rain. During the fourth year of her rule, there was the terrible tsunami tragedy and finally continuous floods and rains. She projected the view that in spite of all the difficulties, she brought the State to a sufficient level where tsunami, flood relief and welfare measures were given successfully.

Even though there was a debacle in May 2004, Lok Sabha Polls, she has generated enthusiasm among the people and has received public support because of her people’s welfare measure like free cycle to higher secondary students, free school books for all students, relief funds for those affected by floods and tsunami. Farmers protection schemes help AIADMK at the rural areas. Women self-help group gives enormous support to her. There is no misuse of power at the lower level. Party’s district level leaders don’t fight with Government Officers. Vandalism and rowdism is curbed to a great extent. Veerappan was shot dead. So people in general appreciate her courage of conviction and helping attitude to the poor and needy.

BJP contests in its own strength in maximum number of seats. The workers can get good exposure of election work at booth level. All India and State leaders tours will inspire the people and cadre. Because of its strong nationalist image, it can hope to have 10 seats but with hard work definitely it can win in 5 seats.

There are severe in fights in Congress group. The warring factions are physically fighting in its Headquarters in Sathyamurthy Bhawan itself. Vijaykanth, an actor, with an action hero image, is also in the field. He promises to send the ration rice to the doorstep of every house hold.

Main Focus is on Amma (Jayalalitha) and Kalingner’s (Karunanidhi) constituencies.

Andipatti, is the Jayalalitha’s constituency. In the last five years of her rule, she started arts college, constructed new school buildings, roads, bridges, drinking water projects. Her mission of starting a medical college has some problems. But she vows to get it in the next period. There is an upbeat among the workers in the constituency.

Chepak is the constituency, where M Karunanidhi is contesting. He is opposed by Dawood Miakhan, grand son of Qude-e-Millat, great leader of Islamic Community. Karunanidhi has been in politics for 70 years. He is known for his talents and leadership qualities. Daily he meets people, media person. He discusses and argues. He presents his view in a forthright manner. Let him be the Chief Minister in last phase of his life.... is the main point of propaganda.

After Vaiko’s crossover from DMK to ADMK alliance the contest for Tamil Nadu’s May 2006 assembly election has taken a startling turn. Vaiko vigorously campaigns for AIADMK alliance victory. His power of articulation gathers momentum.

He emphatically criticizes Karunanidhi and his method of amassing wealth. He vehemently pleads before the people. Whether the wealth of one single family or growth of entire State is important? So people are going to decide the fate on 8th May 2006.