Heralding Vajpayee's return

S Gurumurthy

"Will the NDA get the majority?" Prannoy Roy and his co-analysts, Dorab Sopariwala and Rajdeep Sardesai, asked on NDTV. "Perhaps not," they answered. Going by their show of April 25, Mr Roy aroused interest in the otherwise sedate election pointing to the NDA's victory. Also, by speculating against popular expectation, he increased the viewership for his channel.

Such a provocation has helped the channel sell its offer of shares to pay for the Rs 40 crore loss it had incurred. So he downed two mangoes with one stone. He revived the interest of the viewers in the elections and also sold the shares at a hefty premium. If no one bothers about ethics why should he be an exception? He need not be. So he chose not to be. I got mails faulting him. But I felt he shared the standards of the political personalities he and his colleagues were freely commenting on.

But the NDTV public offer is a side story. The main story is to begin. Thanks to Mr Roy's speculation, a rehearsal has commenced on the Indian political theatre. He has revived the scary third front theatre in national politics after six years of relief from that comic-terror, thanks to the NDA.

Look at the indications of a frightening chaos ahead if Mr Roy's speculative numbers come true. Suddenly, from nowhere, actors from semi-retirement spring Harkishen Singh Surjeet, whose name most college students today would not have heard.

Once Mr Surjeet is on the television screen, the assumption is that the nation is in trouble, and that it faces political instability. Mr Jyoti Basu, otherwise forgotten even by the CPI(M), is again on the screen offering solutions if Mr Roy's speculations come true.

India Today carried Mr Amar Singh and Mr Mulayam Singh on its cover as "king-makers". The Ambanis must be smiling even as their political proxy is perceived as the king-maker. Forthwith, Mr Mulayam singh is announcing his idea of a third front to prevent the BJP and the Congress from getting into power. He declares he is not wanting to be the Prime Minister. Because he wants others to say it.

Immediately, a Laloo Prasad Yadav calls Mr Mulayam Singh a traitor and expounds his idea of a secular front which will exclude the latter. Mr M Karunanidhi is ahead of even the Congress and proposes Ms Sonia Gandhi as the next Prime Minister. The Congress keeps mum as it is nervous about its crossing the 100 mark necessary for Ms Sonia Gandhi to survive in the Congress.

Mr Roy's speculation leaves less hope for the Congress and more for its allies. Ms Mayawati will be where Mr Mulayam Singh is not. He is where Ms Mayawati will not be. Mr HD Deva Gowda, one of the two prime ministers the third front theatre threw up and the Congress dismissed in less than a year, is thinking but not speaking.

So there are any number of fronts, any number of prime ministers, any number of king-makers, but no government in sight. The most crucial actor, no, actress, Ms Sonia Gandhi, is keeping total silence as her Indo-Italian confluence imposes a pre-election disqualification. If this is what exit poll does, what will the actual poll do? This is the terrifying picture ahead if Mr Roy is proved right.

Do these gentlemen realise that their entire rehearsal is based on exit poll results, and not on the actual? They seem to forget that elections in India are conducted by the three-member Election Commission, set up under the provisions of the Indian Constitution, not by the three-member NDTV team headed by Mr Roy declaring results on the TV screen.

Also, it is unlikely that Mr Roy's speculation would help the third front or the Congress. Actually, it may be go the other way. Mr Roy's speculation might have fatally harmed the third front and gravely hurt the Congress. Because by making the third front and Congress actors rehearse what chaos would follow if his speculation comes true, Mr Roy may have done precisely what the BJP has been trying to do: Warn the country that the third front will be a disaster to the nation.

Mr Roy may have succeeded in warning the voters that what follows the rehearsal today may be the actual show after the polls. So gentlemen, beware. Do not make people recall the third front which ruled India from 1996 to 1998. That is sufficient for the people to make Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee the Prime Minister again.