Honeymoon that never was
Kanchan Lakshman

The so-called "peace process" in Jammu and Kashmir is only a tactical ploy by Jihad Inc. to buy time. The intensity of extremism has not reduced, though there has been some diminution of terrorist capacities

Time for a half-yearly audit on terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. By mid-June, 527 people, including 194 civilians and 84 soldiers, have been killed. While these numbers are troubling, and a spurt in high-profile terrorist attacks in May-June 2006 has provoked a sense of rising crisis, the fatalities this year remain significantly lower than those for the same period last year, when 704 persons were killed.

Though the decline in levels of violence, which commenced after 9/11, has been sustained - albeit only marginally between 2004-2005 - on the ground in J&K, the situation remains critical, with a spike in violence over the past two months. Terrorist attacks by Pakistan-backed groups have, alarmingly, also occurred in places as far as Delhi, Varanasi and Bangalore.

The Cabinet Committee on Security chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on June 16 has, rightly, expressed concern at the situation in J&K. Further, chairing a high-level meeting in Srinagar on June 22, National Security Advisor MK Narayanan reportedly conveyed apprehension at the increase in cross-border terrorism, saying Pakistan might be doing this to silence hardliners within the country who were opposing Islamabad's policy in Waziristan, bordering Afghanistan.

Infiltration has increased with the security agencies estimating that over 200 terrorists had crossed the Line of Control till June 15, 2006. The figure stood at 75 for the corresponding period last year. Infiltration usually increases in the summer and thus falls into an established pattern. The current numbers are, consequently, not alarming.

The increase could also be attributed to relatively less snowfall and the damage caused to the fencing along the LoC by the earthquake of October 8, 2005. Nevertheless, terrorists, as is their wont, are trying new ingress routes. Brigadier AK Rathee, the Commanding Officer of the 68-Brigade, disclosed that due to increased vigilance on the LoC and intensive operations in the hinterlands, terrorists are now infiltrating into J&K via Nepal.

More worrying, however, is the fact that there has been a rise in targeted killings, including attacks on soft targets like tourists and Amarnath pilgrims. Terrorists have stepped up attacks on civilians as seen in the killing of eight Bihari labourers in Kulgam on June 12. There has also been a sudden spurt of grenade attacks in and around Srinagar.

A spike in terrorist violence in urban concentrations is related to high-profile events like the Second Roundtable Conference (chaired by the Prime Minister) and the large turnout for the by-election to four Assembly constituencies. Terrorists have chosen soft targets due to effective counter-insurgency operations along the LoC and the interior, as also the neutralisation of a substantial section of the terrorist leadership (56 killed in 2006 till June 29).

However, the terrorist infrastructure, led by the Muttahida Jihad Council in Pakistan, remains intact despite Islamabad's assurances that it would not allow terrorism directed against India from its soil. Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee stated on May 9 that 59 terrorist training camps were still being run in Pakistan and Army Chief General JJ Singh disclosed on June 22 that there were 1,600 to 1,700 terrorists operating in the state.

Against this backdrop, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has reiterated his favourite tune of demilitarisation. On June 23, he told CNBC, "I have proposed demilitarisation as a final resolution. Demilitarise Kashmir, give self-governance to people of Kashmir with a joint management arrangement on top..." Such purported solutions are clearly in the realm of arm-twisting in which terrorist violence is employed as a blackmail factor.

These proposals have already been rejected by New Delhi, and the Indian position emphasises Islamabad's compliance with its promise to end cross-border terror. India has also confirmed willingness to consider anything short of the redrawing of boundaries, and to whatever was required for the free flow of people, goods and ideas on either side of the LoC. Further, India would consider any proposals for self-governance that Islamabad was willing to apply to PoK and the Northern Areas.

It is clear, now, that the hype surrounding the peace process and the "honeymoon" between Delhi and Islamabad are rapidly losing lustre. The various confidence-building measures (CBMs) do not, in any manner, change the stated positions of either country on the status of J&K.

The peace process is tactical. It is obvious that the extremist intent has not been altered on the ground, though there has been some diminution of terrorist capacities. This is disturbing as, increasingly, while the political discourse shapes itself along expected incremental lines, sustained and calibrated levels of terrorist violence are getting deeply intertwined within the larger rubric of the peace process.

While there has been a progressive decline in violence in J&K since 2001, an end to the bloodshed in the state seems as unlikely as it was at any given point since the dramatic escalation of the militancy in 1989-90. Indeed, it may become progressively difficult, in the foreseeable future, to carry on the dialogue process amidst a situation of sustained and calibrated violence. India's patience may be great, but it cannot be infinite.

- The writer is a Research Fellow of Institute for Conflict Management