Politics wins, polity loses

The pulls and pressures of "governance" are very different from the usual political activity and as the period of political honeymoon ends, the stress gets increasingly manifest and noticeable. A "powerless" Prime Minister, governed by dynastic commands at several levels, and diverse coalition pressures, lost his composure when the Opposition delegation led by veteran parliamentarians, Mr LK Advani and Mr George Fernandes, visited him at his office. It is a sad reflection on the relations between the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition.

Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh's frustration is all too evident. It is also natural considering the situation, in practically every sphere of national life, has slipped well beyond his capabilities to handle. Just observe the runaway inflation fuelled by an unimaginative Budget and excessive taxation at all levels-especially in light of the fact that when Dr Singh was sworn in, economy was considered his strong point.

Then look at the chaos in the Northeast; instead of any resolute action, the Government has dithered and adopted a policy of "wait and watch". Manipur has slipped dangerously out of control and violence has taken an ugly turn in Assam. Then, the Punjab Congress stand on the river waters issue: Chief Minister, Captain Amarinder Singh, has issued "threats" to the nation. As if all this was not enough, look at the stupidity of the Karnataka Government, which has taken an action which smacks of vendetta and has revived the political fortune of many.

Politics today is being run by Ms Sonia Gandhi without any accountability, whilst Dr Manmohan Singh is very much a "puppet on a string". The pressure, after all, had to reveal itself in one form or the other! The recent AICC session too has made his secondary status all too clear, and whilst the nation is aware of his position, the point is whether the "system" can adapt to this reality of governance by powerbrokers who have zero accountability to Parliament, and a Prime Minister who is not taken seriously by even his own senior Cabinet colleagues.

Politics of confrontation is evident and the Congress and the Left are bound to target the RSS/BJP along with their allies. The Uma Bharati case speaks for itself and it is matter of time before other leaders are indicted on some charge or the other. Most of such petty conduct will be explained in the name of secular politics to get minority votes, and the legal system will be used and abused to lend these acts with credibility. A state of confrontation is developing which will ultimately result in political chaos and anarchy.

Eventually, this may well result in retribution and Ms Sonia Gandhi and her immediate cot- erie, who wield the power today, will have much to explain and account for as the pressure builds up in the coming months. The transparent attempts to create the impression that Ms Sonia Gandhi maintains a distance from political and commercial decisions of the Government is unlikely to fool anybody.

There are, after all, few secrets in the game. A fractured mandate is being twisted for unlawful acts and sadly the atmosphere is being vitiated with violence and confrontation is renting the air. Victory and defeat are a part of the democratic process, but the politics of vendetta, aided and backed by political opportunists, only gets the leader in trouble.

Emergency, for instance, came just a few years after a major electoral victory for the Congress and Indira Gandhi and Sanjay Gandhi in particular were hounded out of office. They paid the price in 1977, whilst many in governance today were kingpins of the draconian plans by way of which thousands were sent to jail and had little difficulty in "adjusting" to the changed political power syndrome. The reality is the Congress has gained from 112 to 145 seats out of 524 and is clearly looking for a figure of 200 plus. The question is where will the additional seats come from? The party is clearly targeting the "minority" vote and knows that the "majority" is divided along caste lines in several states.

Targeting the RSS, changing history textbooks and arresting Ms Uma Bharti and possibly other BJP leaders (Mr Narendra Modi could well be next) is all part of a plan. Unfortunately, all this will have a very negative impact at the national level. Ms Sonia Gandhi is simply not acceptable and she is aware of this; she declined the post of the Prime Minister because she knew the implications of instability that would have followed. But she has made a tragic error by holding on to the power strings-without being authorised to do so-and will eventually be held accountable by the public for all political vendettas.

The question for the immediate future is whether the UPA Government will last its full term. We tend to take a simplistic view and look for alternatives; however, we tend to forget the fact that any party can go with anyone else in coalition politics-barring the Left, has this not been the case in the past few years? The Maharashtra electoral verdict, due early October, will determine whether the Congress will pursue its policy of cementing the minority vote bank and here it will come in direct conflict with the Left, the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. The largest Muslim population is in West Bengal, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the States in which there are 180 seats in all and where the Congress has a mere 15!

The BJP-led NDA will have to gear up for a political fight which will occur sooner rather than later in a string of states going for Assembly elections. The Opposition alliance has an advantage in Maharashtra while in Haryana the INLD has been revived by the delinquent acts of the Punjab Government. The BJP reacted swiftly after the Karnataka court order, and the resignation of Ms Uma Bharti will highlight the politics of vendetta as also the politics of appeasement of the minority. It will also bring into question the antecedents of several ministers with criminal backgrounds in the Central Cabinet, who exist because of coalition pressure, and also bring into question the political integrity and honesty of Dr Singh and his Government.

The grim contemporary reality is that any mafia don can be a part of the Union Council of Ministers as every one is innocent of murder, rape, kidnapping, etc., unless proved guilty. The process of the completion of trial, on the other hand, may take 10 to 30 years and, in the end, most cases will cease to exist as all evidence will be simply consumed by time and nature. The political vote bank in many states like West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh is controlled by the cadres and criminal elements with financial muscle and they dictate the political agenda.

The criminal nexus is assisted by communal politics, and every community has its extreme elements. However, they rarely go beyond two to five per cent in legislatures in the best and worst situations. The current provocative actions of the ruling dispensation is pushing both the majority and the minority communities into adopting extreme postures. While a handful of political leaders will make momentary gains by such shortsighted measures, there will be many others who will suffer! But it should be remembered that ultimately, the national polity will be the loser-a price that will be too costly for the nation to afford.